Team Dual Rankings

[Two_Cents 0]

A couple of weeks ago Ranger attempted to develop a team dual ranking by looking at the lineups (and I think he did a good job)  I did wonder however, if this could be done by creating a system of simulating matchups so I played around and here is what I came up with.    I wanted to post this now so there could be some debate on the rules of these matches before the next ranking comes out.

- The matches are based only on the current rankings.  I know they aren't perfect but as the season progresses they become more accurate.

- If a team has a weight class thats unranked a rank of 35 is assumed.  I am only using the top 15 in the dual ranking and top 15 in the last team ranking (16 teams) so I assumed most teams have a full or near full line up and tend to have more than just a warm body to fill the weight class.

- points are based on averages for example if you are within 5 in the ranking the higher wrestler gets two and the lower 1.  this assumes the higher ranked wins 2 out of 3 close matches  6 points to 3 then divide by the 3 matches.

- Point Rules

  if ranks are tied (both 35) each team gets 2

  if ranks are within 5, higher wrestler gets 2, lower gets 1

  if higher wrestler is 6-10 ranks higher he gets 3 points

  if higher wrestler is 11-15 ranks higher he gets 4 points

  if higher wrestler is 16-20 ranks higher he gets 5

  if higher wrestler is 21+ ranks higher he gets 6

Ok now to the records

1. Trinity 14-0-1

2. Union 13-1-1

3. Wayne Count 13-2-0

4. Ryle 12-1-2

5. Campbell County 11-4-0

6. John Hardin 10-5-0

7. Woodford County 8-7-0 (beat Seneca in head to head match)

8. Seneca 8-7-0

9. Johnson Central 6-8-1 (beat Larue in head to head match)

10. Larue County 6-8-1

11. Fern Creek 5-8-2

12. South Oldham 4-11-0

13. PRP 3-12-0

14. North Hardin 2-13-0

15. Harrison County 1-14-0

16. Sheldon Clark 0-15-0

Now let the debate begin but please stick to the rules that I used.  saying that Sheldon Clark should be ranked higher does nothing because the rules don't play favorites.

[Danger 0]

You have the records written out wrong. For example, PRP's record is something like 10-2 [w-l] in duals. You have it written out 3-10.

[tc125 0]

not sticking to the rules, im going to tell you that tates creek beat sheldon clark and johnson central last weekend in a dual matchup. not sure what that exactly means to you cause you were just doing these rankings with a system prediction, but figured i would tell you.

[Ranger123 43]

You have the records written out wrong. For example, PRP's record is something like 10-2 [w-l] in duals. You have it written out 3-10.

You aren't understanding the system.  Head to head against the top teams in the state they go 3-12 based on this points system.

[Ranger123 43]

I haven't really taken a lot of time to study out your point system, but the general idea sounds good.  This will be better once I expand the rankings even further (I'm doing top 30 this week).  I like the objective way of looking at it and just letting the numbers work themselves out.  I gave myself a headache going through each dual and asking myself what the result of John A vs Bill B would be for each weight class and each dual.  One change I would suggest is to start with the 16 teams that you think will be at the state duals.  The state dual championship is where we decide the best dual team(s).  Other duals throughout the season are just a prep for the postseason.  So unless you are going to the state duals you don't make the list.  Sorry.  I say start with:

Region 1 Union County

Region 2 John Hardin, Larue County

Region 3 PRP, Bullitt Central

Region 4 Trinity, Seneca

Region 5 South Oldham, Fern Creek

Region 6 Campbell County, Ryle

Region 7 Woodford County, Harrison County

Region 8 Wayne County, Sheldon Clark

Please advise if plans change or teams drop out of consideration.  I propose Two_Cents be assigned the official dual team ranking person.  If anyone has any feedback on the "rules" please do so soon.

[Old School 0]

I understand the system, but the rankings would have to be very accurate.

The top three teams are correct.

Difficult to do, given on any given day anyone could win or lose.

4. Ryle 12-1-2 and 5. Campbell County 11-4-0 have split

6. John Hardin 10-5-0 beaten 4. Ryle 12-1-2 head to head

7. Woodford County 8-7-0 (beat Seneca in head to head match)

8. Seneca 8-7-0, I believe Larue beat Seneca head to head

9. Johnson Central 6-8-1 (beat Larue in head to head match)

10. Larue County 6-8-1

It is my understanding that the state duals use the rankings in determining seeding.

We want to get it right as to who won and lose during the season, not who we think has the better program or team (if they have all the kids available), no injuries, illness, ect. you wrestle the kids you have on any given night, not what you wish you had.

[Ranger123 43]

I agree old school.  And as we go through the season more of those things will get factored in (injuries, grades, etc.).  The problem with looking too much at every Wednesday night dual is that on any given night many team will not take their full team.

[Two_Cents 0]

As mentioned by a couple of people the records I have posted are only the simulated matches and the head to head was also the simulated match.  I am not certain the rankings need to be as accurate as old school mentions cause I think its fair to say that the rankings are probably equally unaccurate for both schools.

I agree that at any time any one of these teams could beat the other which is why i built my scores on averages.  Take the Union vs Trinity  match up.  my system has Trinity winning 30-28 but there are several close matches based on the rankings. 

90% of the system is done automatically so its easy to change teams to the 16 that will attend state duals.  I could also add more teams to do a top 25 but that will take some time to do.

[Old School 0]

I agree old school.  And as we go through the season more of those things will get factored in (injuries, grades, etc.).  The problem with looking too much at every Wednesday night dual is that on any given night many team will not take their full team.

With so many team going to the duals format in stead of tournament many teams are facing off weekly.  I guess you have to rank them on past performance and not what they are capable of.  

If you have the region duals to early for Trinity or St. X, they may not be the best team in the region if 4 or 5 of the starters are in football. One of these teams could be put out and come Jan have the better team.

If you lose in Dec you go down, if you beat a better team in Jan you move up.

Its hard to say that team c is better than team d, when team d Win's head to head, it doesn't matter what month or who didn't make weigh or was out for grades or injuries.

Team c could have two past state champions and 3 place finishers.  They may score more point in the individual state tournament, but that doesn't mean they are a better team top to bottom.

With Football season going on until Dec 8th with all the playoff games, we need to push back the state of the season a couple weeks so that the teams have all the kids available. They won't move up football or reduce the 6 playoff games. So we need to self correct the wrestling season. I remember a few years ago when state was in the 3rd week of February not the second.

[pridewrestler 0]

So according to these rules, trinity would be ranked first? So Union beating Trinity last week doesn't mean anything?

[Ranger123 43]

So according to these rules, trinity would be ranked first? So Union beating Trinity last week doesn't mean anything?

I'm not going to say that it changes the results, but I know Trinity has been impacted by football.  As much and maybe more than any other wrestling team in the state.

[Old School 0]

So according to these rules, trinity would be ranked first? So Union beating Trinity last week doesn't mean anything?

Based on current past performance this would be my spin:

1. Union  

2. Trinity

3. Wayne Count

4. Campbell County

5. John Hardin

6. Ryle

7. Woodford County  

8. Johnson Central  

9. Larue County

10. Seneca

[Old School 0]

I'm not going to say that it changes the results, but I know Trinity has been impacted by football.  As much and maybe more than any other wrestling team in the state.

But you have to credit Union for the win and rank them higher until they lose.

Orgeon had the best team in the PAC 10, until they lost the QB and lost the final three games. Even though the QB will be health by the rose bowl Orgeon still goes to the you aren't good enough bowl.

If I beat you, I should get ranked for it. No excusses as to why.  If the team gets a second chance then great.

North Hardin was considered the press the team to beat Larue in Region 2, John Hardin, Central Hardin and LArue all beat them.  If North gets health, gets kids to different weigh classes, a kid back for grades or whatever and has a good line-up they still can't go to the state duals even if they have the better team on paper. 

Now I'm not saying they could not do well in the individual states tournament.

[ARealWrestlingFanatic 1]

I have to agree with Old School.  Union is tough and beat Trinity by 9 points at Harrison 10 way.  I'm sure Union was missing some of their wrestlers and Trinity was missing some too.  They may get another chance this weekend at Central Hardin Bruin Duals @ John Hardin.  I think Trinity will have the football players back.

[Guest 103GBM?]

I haven't really taken a lot of time to study out your point system, but the general idea sounds good.  This will be better once I expand the rankings even further (I'm doing top 30 this week).  I like the objective way of looking at it and just letting the numbers work themselves out.  I gave myself a headache going through each dual and asking myself what the result of John A vs Bill B would be for each weight class and each dual.  One change I would suggest is to start with the 16 teams that you think will be at the state duals.  The state dual championship is where we decide the best dual team(s).  Other duals throughout the season are just a prep for the postseason.  So unless you are going to the state duals you don't make the list.  Sorry.  I say start with:

Region 1 Union County

Region 2 John Hardin, Larue County

Region 3 PRP, Bullitt Central

Region 4 Trinity, Seneca

Region 5 South Oldham, Fern Creek

Region 6 Campbell County, Ryle

Region 7 Woodford County, Harrison County

Region 8 Wayne County, Sheldon Clark

Please advise if plans change or teams drop out of consideration.  I propose Two_Cents be assigned the official dual team ranking person.  If anyone has any feedback on the "rules" please do so soon.

if you go by the bullitt central toueney then it will be PRP and southern

[Two_Cents 0]

I never suggested that my system is perfect either.  Old School brought up College Football.  Neither Human Polls or Computer Polls are perfect.  I have just created a computer poll for teams.  I would say if he decided to Ranger could use what this system generates as a starting point and then subjectively adjust based on recent matches and known injuries (since this system can't take injuries into account). 

I mainly created this for fun to see what it produces and I was plesently supprised that it generated a list that wasn't too far off what Ranger posted two weeks ago.  It will be interesting how close it comes to the next list he publishes.

[Old School 0]

I never suggested that my system is perfect either.  Old School brought up College Football.  Neither Human Polls or Computer Polls are perfect.  I have just created a computer poll for teams.  I would say if he decided to Ranger could use what this system generates as a starting point and then subjectively adjust based on recent matches and known injuries (since this system can't take injuries into account). 

I mainly created this for fun to see what it produces and I was plesently supprised that it generated a list that wasn't too far off what Ranger posted two weeks ago.  It will be interesting how close it comes to the next list he publishes.

Two-Cents,

I'm all for a system, we have to give any system a chance and work the buggs out and make adjusts.  Maybe with time and adjustment someone will make some mathamatic forumla with this system that will be adpoted nation wide for high school.

Its a great start.

Thanks :-D

[PAPPY HAPPY 1]

Why not give bonus points for wins.

[#1fan 0]

Seneca did not lose in a duel to Woodford. We beat them by almost 20 and the super duels.

[grappler-of-old 44]

I guess the real question here is. Do we want to try and get it correct?  (Meaning who will win state duals.)  or Do we want to give teams their day in the spotlight. 

If we want to get it correct we must look at the teams when they have their best team on the mat.

If we want to give a team their day in the spotlight then we credit them with a higher ranking even if half the team they defeated was not their. 

Either way it truly does not matter.  These rankings hold no meaning to the KHSAA or determine any outcomes.  It is just for fun.

If coaches and tournament directors are using these to determine seeds and such I would use then sparingly.  No disrespect to Ranger, but if I was coaching and I lost a seed because of one mans idea of who was better I would not be happy.  Allow the coaches to settle this in seeding meetings.

[Ranger123 43]

I guess the real question here is. Do we want to try and get it correct?  (Meaning who will win state duals.)  or Do we want to give teams their day in the spotlight. 

If we want to get it correct we must look at the teams when they have their best team on the mat.

If we want to give a team their day in the spotlight then we credit them with a higher ranking even if half the team they defeated was not their. 

Either way it truly does not matter.  These rankings hold no meaning to the KHSAA or determine any outcomes.  It is just for fun.

If coaches and tournament directors are using these to determine seeds and such I would use then sparingly.  No disrespect to Ranger, but if I was coaching and I lost a seed because of one mans idea of who was better I would not be happy.  Allow the coaches to settle this in seeding meetings.

I guess I can't count on you for a write-in vote for president next fall.  And just so you know, everyone's opinion is considered and valued (except for those with karma below 0  :-D) as I prepare the rankings.

As I put the dual rankings together I use the same line of thinking as the individual.  I am only thinking about the end of the season.  Which means state duals and the state tournament.

[grappler-of-old 44]

    That is the way I would like them ranger.  Who will be on top at the end.  That is what we should strive for.  (I'm looking up at the sky to make sure it is not falling in, since we are agreeing.) :evil: :-D

    Example.  Mason Reid wrestles the number 3 ranked kid in the state (I'm not sure who it is).  He looses the match because of an injury defalt.  Does he now lose his #1 spot?  Does the number 3 move up? 

    I don't think anyone would agree if he lost his number one ranking.  So why would a team who is missing 2 or 3 of their top kids be pushed down the rankings for loosing to a team lower than them? 

    I know you won't take my opinion (because I'm lower than 0 in karma)  :-D  But I'll give it to you anyway.  You know I can't keep my big mouth shut.  Thats why I'm always in the negative.

[Two_Cents 0]

The nice thing is rankings don't determine who will be in the post season like college football.  They give an idea where everybody is at and provides a good discussion when we aren't wrestling.

BTW Ranger I don't have any karma yet so what does that mean?

Anyway on to my version of the rankings based on the updated rankings.

I ran region simulations with every team that has at least 3 ranked wrestlers so I apologize if your school isn't listed.  Also because of the additional programs i changed 1 rule.  If you had 11-14 ranked wrestlers your unranked spots received a 35 ranking.  8-10 ranked wrestlers I alternated between 35 and 45.  Less than 8 a rotation of 35, 45, and 55 was used.  This was changed to factor the assumption that if you have fewer ranked wrestlers you have more of a chance to have an inexperienced wrestler or no wrestler at a given weight class.

After I ran each region i took the top 2 and ran the remaining 16.  (to my knowledge all the locked in teams are in the remaining 16).  I can already hear the "you can't be serious comments" but here is how the simulation ended.  Remember all records mentioned are simulated matches and no actual results were considered.

Region 1

Union County 8-0-0

Christian County 7-1-0

Calloway County 5-2-1

Henderson County 5-3-0

Ohio County 2-4-2

Caldwell County 2-5-1

Paducah Tilghman 2-6-0

Fort Campbell 1-5-2

Apollo 1-7-0

Region 2

John Hardin 7-0-0

Larue County 6-1-0

North Hardin 5-2-0

Central Hardin 4-3-0

Anderson County 3-4-0

Fort Knox 2-5-0

Nelson County 1-6-0

Danville 0-7-0

Region 3 *cringes*

PRP 6-0-0

Meade County 5-1-0

Bullitt Central 3-3-0

Southern 3-3-0

Doss 2-4-0

DeSales 1-5-0

Iroquois 1-5-0

Region 4

Trinity 4-0-0

Seneca 3-1-0

Moore 2-2-0

St. Xavier 1-3-0

Central 0-4-0

Region 5

Fern Creek 4-0-1

North Oldham 4-1-0

South Oldham 3-1-1

Eastern             2-3-0

Oldham County 1-4-0

Kentucky Country Day 0-5-0

Region 6

Ryle 6-0-0

Campbell County 5-1-0

Simon Kenton 4-2-0

Scott 3-3-0

Conner 1-4-1

Dixie Heights 1-5-0

Newport 0-5-1

Region 7

Woodford County 8-0-0

Paul Dunbar 7-1-0

Harrison County 6-2-0

Lafayette 5-3-0

Tates Creek 4-4-0

Franklin County 3-5-0

Henry Clay 2-6-0

Bourbon County 1-7-0

Montgomery County 0-8-0

Region 8

Wayne County 5-0-0

Johnson Central 4-1-0

Sheldon Clark 3-2-0

LCC 2-3-0

Whitley County 0-4-1

McCreary County 0-4-1

State Duals

1. Union County 14-0-1

2. Ryle 13-1-1

3. Trinity 13-1-1

4. Wayne 12-2-1

5. Campbell County 11-4-0

6. John Hardin 10-5-0

7. Woodford County 7-7-1

8. Christian County 7-7-1

9. Larue County 7-8-0

10. Seneca 6-9-0

11. Johnson Central 6-9-0

12. Fern Creek 4-11-0

13. North Oldham 3-12-0

14. PRP 3-12-0

15. Paul Dunbar 1-14-0

16. Meade County 0-15-0 (I also ran Bullitt Central and they had the same record)

Top 4 matches

UNION 28 Trinity 28

UNION 29 Ryle 27

UNION 31 Wayne 28

Trinity 24 Ryle 25

Trinity 27 Wayne 23

Ryle 28 Wayne 28

Anyway there you have it.

[Old School 0]

It will be interesting to watch this simulation play out:

It worked out for Region 2

John Hardin  7-0-0

Larue County  6-1-0

Region 6  Inverted, Ryle was without several key wrestlers which the computer doesn't realize, and Ryle did beat them already.

Ryle      6-0-0

Campbell County  5-1-0

Only time will tell.

You may have something here. :wink:

[Ranger123 43]

I told you I thought it would work out pretty well.  Good stuff.