Region 1 Tournament Predictions 2/4/13

[FalconWrestling 147]

Just gonna start off by stating again that these are not rankings, these are my personal predictions based off of feedback given to me concernin certain wrestlers, gut instincts, some crystal ball glancing, and studying the results. As lat year showed you can have the most up to date rankings in the world and they will mean completely nothin when it comes to this tournament. I highly reccomend that you submit your own personal predictions for the Top 4/6 at some or all of the weights (you don't have to go as in depth as I will). If anyone is curious I printed out the brackets provided by Coach Hoehn as they currently stand and filled them completely out and that is how I came to these conclusions. There are some upsets (and not all of them are by Fort Campbell thank you) which contradict what I would put in rankings (See Gilkey and Cole when they come up). If you want me to also update the rankings I have the material to do so.

My Predictions

106

1. Bryce Sheffer, Union

2. Tyler Ward, Apollo

3. Travon Thacker, Hoptown

4. Wes Gray, Caldwell

5. Zenon Rodriguez, PT

6. Kaleb Sapp, Ohio

Dark Horse: Skylar Martinson, Daviess

We start the day off right with one of the toughest weights in the region. The finals will be the long awaited match up between Tyler Ward and Bryce Sheffer. As I have done throughout the entire year I predict Sheffer to win this match up but a Ward repeat will not be that surprising. If Thacker wrestles to his potential he could potentially upset Ward, but he will have to handle a very strong Rodriguez in his previous match. Martinson is listed as my dark horse as a wrestler who could place easily but only as a very outside shot at state.

113

1. Robbie Dezember, Union

2. Jeremiah Kline, Trigg

3. Anthony DeWitt, Ft Camp

4. Scott Ruttman, Calloway

5. Chris Barham, Graves

6. Moses Williams, Apollo

Dark Horse: Daniel Dyess, UHA

I am sure the Apollo crowd is up in arms over my placing their 3rd seed in the 6th place spot, but 113 is a very tough weight and nobody has an easy bracket. Williams in fact has a tougher bracket then most. Dezember and Kline are another marquee finals matchup of two potential state placers. DeWitt is an incosistent but talented wrestler who could end up not making it to state if he doesn't bring his A Game. Just about everybody from 3rd down listed here and including Nichols of Caldwell and Tichenor of Ohio could get that 3rd spot. Dyess is just in the best spot to do it outside of my top 6.

120

1. Trae Blackwell, Union

2. Caleb Austin, Christian

3. Conner Jaschen, Hoptown

4. Derek Miller, PT

5. Braden Sperry, Caldwell

6. Chance Collins, UHA

Dark Horse: Tanner Ward, Apollo

This is the first weight where the Regional Champ is virtually set in stone. Blackwell is the returning state champ and despite Austin's considerable talent is pretty solidly at that number one spot. Jaschen is my first major bracket buster of the day (not counting Barham since he didn't make it to state). Something just feels right about him in this instance but just like at 113, 3rd place and down can finish in just about any order.

126

1. Brock Ervin, Union

2. Brian Hedrick, Ft. Camp

3. B.J. Miller, Ohio

4. Camerin Cole, Christian

5. Frank Rosario, PT

6. Dalton Putty, UHA

Dark Horse: Nicholas Walls, Calloway

Ervin is coming in nationlly ranked and won't even be touched in the state. Hedrick has been a solid number two thus far and has been very consistent, so I don't forsee any upsets. However I have another bracket buster in Cole who I have beating Rosario and then Putty to go to state. This would be a big moment for Christian's regional runner-up hopes.

132

1. Wade Willen, UHA

2. Chris Gilkey, Caldwell

3. Gabe Ervin, Union

4. Ryan Bunch, Ohio

5. Chandler Martin, PT

6. Nick Ringle, Ft. Camp

Dark Horse: Jeremy Burnham, Christian

This is one tough weight class. Any of the top 3 could win it and are contenders to place highly at state, and there are all but maybe two kids at this weight who don't have a legit shot at that 4th qualifier spot. I predict Wade to avenge his loss to Gilkey but he has to get past a very solid Gabe Ervin in the semi's first. If Bunch can get past Nick Ringle in his first match then he has a relatively easy path to state. But if he loses then he will probably have to face Gabe Ervin for his go to match. I put Ringle at 6th sense if he doesn't make it to the 3rd place match his mental strength will end up sucked out of him, and will be one of the better wrestlers in recent years never to make the state tournament.

138

1. Jayce Carr, Union

2. David Sahms, Ft Camp

3. Kevi Matlock, Christian

4. Isaiah Frank, Calloway

5. Daniel Ingram, Trigg

6. Will Crabtree, UHA

Dark Horse: Amad Cano, Daviess

138 could hold a potential state finals match up with Carr against either Sahms or Matlock who both could make the state finals with a good bracket and their A game. Matlock and Sahms will be one of the more anticipated match ups at the tournament with potentially the team race on the line. Frank is the best of the rest in my opinion but he has to be careful facing Ingram in his first match.

145

1. Kory Polley, Christian

2. Jeff Wurth, Union

3. Jacob Bennett, Ohio

4. Nighgell Davidson, Ft Camp

5. Robert Bussell, Hoptown

6. Ryan Gallogly, Trigg

Dark Horse: Andrew Walls, Caldwell

I am very glad to see Wurth back in action but coming back in this state and beatin Polley I believe is too tall of an order. 145 is one of the weight classes with a decent amount of hype behind it so I thought I would throw in an upset or two. Thus I have Nighgell Davidson barely beating Bussell to make it to the semi's. But as I have said a hundred times the competation is so strong in this group that there are tons of ways it could finish.

152

1. Keegan Agnew, Caldwell

2. Kyle Bunch, Ohio

3. Chad Gahafer, Union

4. Kenny Sells, Christian

5. Gino Haywood, Ft Camp

6. Joe Sisco, Graves

Dark Horse: Timothy Collier, Apollo

I am gonna sound like a broken record but we find ourselves again at another really tough weight which has gone back and forth all year. Right now Bunch sits on top rankings wise but I think Agnew pulls it out in the end. However, Agnew will have to get back former state placer Gahafer of Union in the semis who also has the talent to win the region. After dropping an early match to Gahafer I have Sells making it through the rest of the bracket and beating Haywood to make it to state. Sisco has turned it on late in the year, but his losses earlier in the year still make me wary of him.

160

1.Cameron Montgomery, UHA

2. Jerry Haywood, Ft Camp

3. Brian French, Union

4. Nathan Williams, Hoptown

5. Jayven Jones, Trigg

6. Bryson Elliot, Calloway

Dark Horse: Collin Feezor, Graves

160 features a very solid top 5 with Montgomery sitting safely on top for now. But when it comes to regionals who knows what Jerry Haywood is going to. Either he will pull of a run out of nowhere ('11) or choke away a spot at the state tournament ('12). French has a win over Haywood earlier in the year and is of course not a wrestler to ignore. Williams has a lot of talent but faces stiff competation from Jones just to make it to state.

170

1. Ki Ryder, Ft Camp

2. Kane Morris, Union

3. Ben Redfield, Paducah

4. Chase Copeland, Graves

5. Tyler Wilson, Calloway

6. Connor Judd, Daviess

Dark Horse: Austin Durham, Trigg

Ryder seems to have a pretty solid control on top of 170. Redfield was my dark horse of sorts towards the start of the year but missing so much wrestling has the potential to seriously hurt him at this tournament. 4th place can go to sizable handful of wrestlers including a couple not mentioned on my predictions.

182

1. Devin Smith, Union

2. Joseph Freeland, Christian

3. Clay Revlett, Caldwell

4. Phil Bradley, UHA

5. Enrique Martinez, Ft Camp

6. Mario Miles, Hoptown

Dark Horse: Zak Thompson, Paducah

I have been told by some that Freeland has a chance of beating Smith but I am keeping Smith on top for now. Revlett and Freeland should be a decent semi's match up but over all 182 is one of the weaker weights in the region with no major state placer threats outside of a good run by Devin Smith. Martinez finds himself in a good section of the bracket and I have him upsetting Zak Thompson which could easily not happen.

195

1. Aaron Stevens, Trigg

2. Bryan Carter, Union

3. Bradley Easterling, Ohio

4. Stevie Mason, Christian

5. Chase Allen, Daviess

6. Ryan Cates, Apollo

Dark Horse: Hunter Goree, Graves

I doubt Stevens will be touched at all this tournament as the only intriguing match up is the semi between Carter and Easterling. Other then that 195 is considerably lacking in depth and doesn't really excite me.

220

1. Cole Sherman, Union

2. Tevin Toler, Christian

3. Zach Farris, Ohio

4. Dustin Armendariz, Ft Camp

5. Ryan Duvall, Apollo

6. Bobby Caldwell, Paducah

Dark Hose: Eugean Butler, Hoptown

220 is an absoulete mess because of a late season upset of Duvall over Armendariz and a total Charlie Foxtrot in regards to seeding. The best two guys at this weight (Sherman and Farris) will be meeting in the semi's with a region title on the line, and because of his late upset Duvall could potentially find himself in the regional finals.

285

1. Raynel Brown, Union

2. Jake Jorstad, Ft Camp

3. Luke Shaffer, Ohio

4. Dominic Hephner, Paducah

5. Kyler Kendall, Caldwell

6. Taylor Widmer, Apollo

Dark Horse: Andrew Lee, Calloway

Heavyweight hold some intriguing potential match ups. Jorstad has been wrestling very well late in the year but does not have a win over Luke Shaffer who needs to make the regional finals to help Ohio's runner-up hopes. Outside of the top 3 there are again numerous ways the weight could turn out. But it seems Hephner has begun to actually wrestle at the right time of the year.

Team

1. Union County (61)

2. Fort Campbell (31)

3. Christian County (26)

4. Ohio County (22)

5. Caldwell County (16)

6. UHA (15)

7. Trigg County (12)

8. Hopkinsville (10)

9. Apollo (8)

10. Paducah Tilghman (8)

11. Calloway County (5)

12. Graves County (4)

13. Daviess County (2)

14. Owensboro (0)

I did the team predictions using the same method I had been doing team rankings previously (1st-5, 2nd-4, 3rd-3, 4th-2, 5th/6th- 1). It isn't the most accurate in regards to potential team score but it gives you a general idea how my predictions would cause the team race to show up. Union of course is gonna run away with the title, but there is a 3 team race for second between Fort Campbell, Christian County, and Ohio County. UHA is buoyed by their two champs which places them ahead of more balanced teams like Trigg and Apollo. Daviess is set to have a very disappointing showing after being hit hard by the injury bug. Owensboro of course would be lucky to win a couple matches this year.

[Coach_Diaz 3]

Ouch

[FalconWrestling 147]

I knew I forgot someone, hold on

[FalconWrestling 147]

There Hoptown is now in team rankings

[ukpridewrestler11 276]

Once again, a stellar breakdown FCHS. Appreciate what you do for this region, by far the best in the state at regional breakdowns. 

[FalconWrestling 147]

Thanks for the kind words UK. I honestly think I get so much praise because I am the only one obsessive enough to go through all these freaking results. I don't feel like I add that much insight, I mostly just consolidate what should be known. Don't make this the me show though I really want to see what everyone else thinks. You don't have to go the whole 9 yards like I did though

[halfhalfhalf 121]

This year's regions is going to be a knockout drag out fight in some weight classes.  No questions about it. 

[FalconWrestling 147]

Sadly I am not going to break out that insane formula I did to justify not making it to state my senior year. But here is my basic opinion of the toughest weight classes. Bolded weights are those with potential state champs, the number after them is how many placers I think could likely come from that weight

 

1. 113 (3)

2. 132 (3)

3. 145 (2)

4. 152 (3)

5. 106 (4)

6. 120 (2)

7. 126 (2)

8. 138 (3)

9. 160 (3)

10. 285 (2)

11. 170 (1)

12. 220 (0)

13. 182 (1)

14. 195 (1)

[FalconWrestling 147]

Couple more days

[ukpridewrestler11 276]

106: Ward, Sheffer, Thacker, Gray

113: Dezember, Kline, DeWitt, Barham

120: Blackwell, Austin, Miller, Sperry

126: Ervin, Hedrick, Rosario, Miller

132: Willen, Gilkey, Ervin, Bunch

138: Carr, Sahms, Matlock, Ingram

145: Polley, Wurth, Bennett, Bussell

152: Agnew, Bunch, Gahafer, Haywood

160: Montgomery, French, Haywood, Jones

170: Ryder, Morris, Redfield, Wilson

182: Smith, Revelett, Freeland, Bradley

195: Stevens, B. Carter, Easterling, Mason

220: Farris, Toler, Sherman, Armaderiz

HWT: Raynel, Kendall, Shaffer, Hephner

 

 

Haven't seen most of these kids, just taking a wild stab at my predictions. They might not even be possible with how the brackets are set up, did not check. 

[halfhalfhalf 121]

UK will you be at regions?

[ukpridewrestler11 276]

Haven't decided yet if I want to make this drive or not.

[FalconWrestling 147]

No Jorstad at heavy or did you just miss him?

[KentuckyWrestlingHeavy 1]

The only thing I have a problem with this is in the heavy weight spot which I follow closely as you can tell by name... I don't understand how you have Widmer from Apollo losing to Kendall from Caldwell when he ha a quick pin on him already this yeAr also I've watched tht kid from Apollo and I think he has the potential to be in the finals against jordstad

[FalconWrestling 147]

I will admit I don't follow heavyweight that well. But I will cover my tracks by pointing out there are upsets at heavyweight every year since as soon as a heavy hits his back he is done. I will have to look at the brackets to see why I put him there

[KentuckyWrestlingHeavy 1]

Also the fact of the matter is he is not a true heavy weight he has wrestled at 220 a few times this year and only losing 1 time there so he is quicker than everyone else so of he does face raylock I think it would be a good match and he has a chance of betting him if they go to the third period for he has better cardio then most heavyweights if not all

[ukpridewrestler11 276]

Half, I will be at regions. And as for the heavyweight, these are my predictions an I haven't been able to follow it closely as much. I know Kendall is strong and a first year wrestler, with the heavyweights it's usually who ends up on top first wins. Lets see your predictions.

[halfhalfhalf 121]

See you there buddy. Let's continue this killer game of ruzzle

[FalconWrestling 147]

You guys only got about one more day to post your predictions. Or are UK and I the only guys brave enough to put our reps on the line? Haha

[KentuckyWrestlingHeavy 1]

If I had to predict anything different from you it would be ward over Schaffer and heavy weight would be different on most spots

If I had to predict anything different from you it would be ward over Schaffer and heavy weight would be different on most spots

[ukpridewrestler11 276]

ApolloHeavy, I mean KentuckyWrestlingHeavy, what would your predictions at heavyweight be?

[KentuckyWrestlingHeavy 1]

Look I know I'm favoring Apollo a lot but I'm not the Apollo heavy, it's just they are a lot better than people are giving credit to

[FalconWrestling 147]

Apollo reminds me of Fort Campbell a couple years back (half's first year coaching). They are about a year or two away from being a respectable force in the region. But they are definately heading in the right direction. But next year they will be in Region 2 and have to deal with the likes of the Hardins

[KentuckyWrestlingHeavy 1]

I never really knew about Apollo until this year when they went from like 65th in the state to 23rd in one year and only really gaining one wrestler who had never wrestled before this year so I hope good things come to them in the future

[FalconWrestling 147]

When did they finish 23rd?