Ranger123

OK, some of you asked for it so here it is. I haven't had adequate time to look at the details as much as I would like, but it's a first shot. We have months to refine it. I didn't get to see every wrestler step on the scale (nor do I want to), so I have made some wild guesses about moving weights. I hate the old "take out the seniors" approach. But I have been given some insight on where some guys plan to be next season. Of course we're 9 months away from a body fat test, so many plans will change. I also added a few middle school kids, but didn't see many this year. So here are my top 8 individuals and top 20 teams. 103 Un Co Aaron Carr 10 Sen Elliott Martin 11 FC Tommy Warren 9 Tri Brent Hitchings 9 / Erin McCauley 9 JC JJ Jude 9 / Zach Salyers 8 Lar Co Joey Henderson 9 Ryle Austin Palmer 9 SO Brandon Whitehouse 9 112 Way Co Travis Sullivan 11 NH Josh Johnson 9 Un Co Adam Carr 12 Wood Co Shane Parks 11 JC Cory Spencer 11 PD Jon Voth 11 FC Josh Burkett 11 Bull Cen James Badgett 11 119 Un Co Isaac Ervin 10 Eas Joaquin Luna 10 Way Co Coty Vinsant 11 Mon Co Ross Carpenter-Fraser 11 Lar Co Lucas Carmen 11 SC Matt Slone 9 CH Mason Bradbury 10 HC Cliff Cornett 12 125 PD Tyler Voth 12 FC Caleb Wood 12 Wood Co Coty Lewis 11 Sen John Chui 12 Way Co Bryan Daniels 11 JH Justin Pitcher 11 HC Matt Zarth 10 Tri Grant Ohlman 9 130 Old Co Ben Warner 12 JH Cassidy Veach NH Matt Eck 12 Sen Dan Fuller 12 JC Jordan Freeman 10 Con Rashad Brown 12 Moore Crayton McCain 12 St X Daniel Miller 11 135 Ryle Bryan Peace 11 FC Malcolm Jackson SC Brandon Howard 12 Cam Co Kyle Griffith 11 Wood Co Steven Butler 12 Sen Zach Poulton 11 SO Cody Hall 12 Eas Paul Marks 12 140 Har Co Josh Ashbrook 11 Lar Co Matt Miller 11 Tri Ben Case 12 FC Derek Branch 11 Fr Co Ryan Tingle 11 Wood Co Chad Scott 11 St X Cory Kress 12 Con Ryan Dillon 11 145 Un Co Mitch Ervin 11 Scott Daniel Thueneman 12 Hol John Golsby 12 FC Kevin Stewart 12 Har Co Bryan Wasson 11 Lar Co Evan Smith 12 Wood Co Blake Sheehan 11 Tri Brad Hitchings 9 152 Wood Co Harrison Courtney 10 Lar Co Patrick Banks 12 SK Josh Cooper 12 Mc Cen Randall Stevens 12 And Co Sammy Isaacs 11 FC Ben Barger 11 Har Co Beau Sanders 11 St X Chip Condon 12 160 FC John Wolsiefer 11 Lar Co Scott Wheeler 12 NH Ty Wolf 11 Cam Co Tom Brownfield 11 Har Co Corey Ward 12 Wood Co Justin Mays 12 CH Joe Collin 12 Cen John Thomas 11 171 Wood Co Will Starks 12 Eas Ben Rupp 12 Ryle Mason Reid 11 SC Adam Dials 11 NH Matt Baker Lar Co Bryant Barnhill 12 Tri John Florence 12 Mc Cen Ryan Harlow 9 189 Mc Cen Jacob Watson 12 NH Mark Jones 11 Apollo Matt Green 11 SC Ryan Kelly 10 Lar Co Jake Shipp 12 HC Zack Guiler 12 CH Terry Turner 12 Vall Joe Raleigh 12 215 FC Deon Chaney 11 Lar Co Joe Embree 12 Sen Jordan Dockery 12 Mc Cen Tanen Roe 11 / Steven Watson SC Justin Chaffin 11 PD Doug Winter 12 Doss Derrick Nickel 11 SO Cameron Hartman 11 275 Wood Co Matt Byrd 12 Old Co Josh Young 12 Ohio Co Adam Burdin 12 Fair Robby Brown 12 New Devon Boxx Scott Adam Patterson 12 Vall Will Smith 11 PD Jeff Faulkner 12

Fuller is #9 on my list. He didn't stick Roe at state. Must have been another meet as I never saw that result.

I didn't realize that we had to pay this year. Well, if that's the case then a move is definitely possible. One that I've heard is a real possibility is Richmond. Not sure how many mats you could fit in, but probably more than the current 4. Not really centrally located, but pretty close and likely more accomodations. I don't know if the rotation idea would work. A site would probably want to lock in the dates for some period of time.

It's not so much that I don't think they will be top 20, but they lost 9 seniors (from the state qualifiers) and I don't know who will fill those slots. Once we see who they reload with I'm sure they will crack the top 20, but not sure how high they will go.

Good catch. I completely forgot about Denham. He should be top 4 at 160. I had Benson #9, but will re-evaluate.

BUT, you have to account for the cost of using the site. I think the KHSAA gets the Civic Center for nothing (or close to it). Unless that changes, we are in Frankfort for the long haul. I'm okay with that.

Not a good example to choose. I know they have wrestled head to head quite a number of times over the last few years. And the only match Allmen can hang his hat on is a tournament at Bourbon Co last summer when Wasson was way out of shape. Prior to the bad match against Carey, Wasson's only losses all year were close matches to Eric Bryant, Ben Rust (who he also beat), Steven Butler (who he also beat) and a loss to Parker. Try again. Plus, Allmen will have the opportunity to prove me wrong all year.

I know this doesn't mean a lot, but the Bluegrass games results show that he finished ahead of Hardin and Goodrich at HWY last summer. Maybe he will cut back to 215, but without Goodrich I think the chances are lower. Plus, with so many graduates I think 275 is wide open for next season.

Not necessarily. I do think he was one of the most improved wrestlers I saw this season, but he benefited from a very favorable draw at state. If he can proved himself early in the season he will move up quickly.

First, regarding Eastern. Yes, you have Luna, Rupp, Marks, and Kraft back. But I don't see those guys improving their finishing position by much. You lose Wise which balances out that improvement. Yes, other guys could step up, but I don't see those guys yet. As far as losing a few spots, I think teams like McCreary Central will be much improved with lots of returning talent and adding some kids from a good middle school program. slideby - I have Matt Slone #6 at 119. Not to toot my own horn, but just defending myself, my final predictions had about 90% of the medalists in the top 10. I don't think anyone matched that. Four weight classes I had at least 7 of the top 8 predicted in the top 8. Much of the credit goes to the input received on this forum.

OK. Take off Brent. My mistake. I don't like to just leave everyone at this past season's weight. I think that is worse than guessing. At least there are some kids I know that will be moving up a class or two. Thanks grappler. Not sure Golsby will get back to 140. I don't think he will want to cut it. But I can't disagree on the rest. You are probably pretty close.

OOPS! Forgot the teams. These are really preliminary based only on the top 8 above, so much will change when we get more info. 1 Fern Creek 2 Woodford County 3 Larue County 4 Union County 5 North Hardin 6 Seneca 7 Sheldon Clark 8 Harrison County 9 McCreary Central 10 Trinity (Louisville) 11 Paul Dunbar 12 Wayne County 13 Ryle 14 Eastern 15 Oldham County 16 Johnson Central 17 Scott 18 John Hardin 19 Campbell County 20 Henry Clay

My picks would be Daniel Murner, Joe Powers, and Josh Johnson for stepping it up at state. Coty Lewis really bounced back after a disappointing regional finish. And some fo the champs were pretty awesome, Derek Scott, Murton, Richard Starks, Scherer. It is tough to pick one.

pioneer - I have Brad Hitchings ranked. He is the older of the two.

Why would Spencer not be at 112? Wasn't he at 103 part of this season?

One last thought on the statistical side ... Look at it from the individual side. When a football or basketball team makes it, you're taking multiple kids. Some of which are not the best players. I'm sure Trinity and St. X carry some dead weight with them every year. So yes, some of the first round of the wrestling tournament is not real competitive, but that's just because each and every kid is exposed in wrestling (as Eville has stated). You can't hide behind your teammates.

Wolverine - I sort of like the idea of allowing multiple entries from a team at each weight. BUT, that would not encourage many new teams to get started and would only help the bigger/deeper teams. I'm not 100% sure, but I think there are a couple of other states that do that currently. Overall, I agree that it is too easy to advance to the state tournament. But we really need to be in a growth mode right now and it seems to be working. Eventually, we will get to a point where we need to go back to the district/region alignment due to numbers (I don't think classes will happen) and this will give the KHSAA a much neeed opportunity to realign some teams. Right now the state tournament is working well for our sport and we're headed in the right direction. I say our finals is the greatest sporting event in the world, bar none. But that doesn't mean it shouldn't continue to be improved to be sure it stays the best.

Are you joking or should we go ahead and label you as a complete idiot and ignore further posts?

A 2 year period of 122-0 deserves a lot of respect.

Here are my stats: Reg Team Pts Top 10 teams Top 20 teams State Champs State Finalists 7 509.5 2 3 5 7 5 476.5 3 4 4 7 2 376.5 2 3 1 4 6 375.0 1 3 1 4 8 345.5 0 3 2 2 4 322.5 2 2 0 0 1 321.0 1 1 0 3 3 196.0 0 1 1 1 Pretty much as expected. Regions 7 and 5 were dominant in points, finalists, and champs. Regions 2, 6, 8, 4, and 1 were all about even, depending on your criteria. Though Region 4 has to be disappointed with no finalists. Region 3 was boosted by a huge effort from Joe Powers and Bullitt Central showing their regional championship wasn't a complete fluke.

grappler - I seem to recall wrestling South Oldham a couple years at the regional tournament in the '90-'92 period. Anyone know if I have lost my mind or not?

grappler - something to consider on your point #1, under the old system the region I competed in included: Woodford, South Oldham, Oldham, Harrison, Sheldon Clark, and all of the Lexington schools to name a few. That would leave out some pretty tough 5th place finishers. Plus, I think the new program argument has a lot of merit. When a new team can work hard and have a chance to send some kids to the big show there is a chance to hit the ground running and build teams more quickly. Example, Newport has a new team in a tough region with a lot of young wrestlers and no state qualifiers. There was lots of excitement about the program early in the season, especially when Boxx won the conference. But too many years without a state qualifier and that will spell trouble. Kids will lose interest and the school might as well.

I could do that. What I hope to do in the next week is take out the seniors, but also move some guys around based on what I know about their teams and how much weight they cut this year.

I compared my rankings with the "official" rankings and we're dead even looking at the top 2. Both Coach Coomes and I picked 21 of the 28 finalists and 10 winners. But this was my first year doing this, so I hope to do much better next year. And as requested I will try to put together preseason rankings. Maybe we can all watch the summer action and get updates from wrestlers and get a better idea where they will be wrestling next season.